Developing realistic energy and climate futures
The ENTAP research group develops realistic futures for energy and climate. We start from the premise that credible long-term thinking requires rigorous engagement with how technologies grow and how policies work. Too often, energy scenarios rest on assumptions of cost optimality or other idealised representations of how technologies and markets behave. Our work aims to change that.
We focus on two complementary research strands: the dynamics of technology change and the drivers and dynamics of climate and energy policy. Together, these form the basis for developing energy and climate futures that are empirically-grounded and policy-relevant.
Technology
A central aim of our work is to develop methods to assess the feasibility and dynamics of technological change. How fast can technologies realistically scale? How do different types of constraints (material, industrial, and institutional) shape these trajectories? And how should we handle the uncertainty inherent associated with innovation and diffusion? Our methods draw on historical patterns of technology growth and diffusion to build empirically grounded assessments and assess the feasibility of technology expansion across a range of climate-relevant technologies, from renewables to carbon capture and storage.
Policy
Technologies do not grow in a vacuum. Policies shape the conditions under which technologies succeed or fail, and the design and durability of policies are themselves shaped by political, institutional, and economic forces. Our policy research examines these dynamics to understand how policies co-evolve with the technologies they govern. When do policies lead technology change, and when do they follow it? How do the policy needs for acceleration change as technologies mature? And how much room do policymakers have to steer energy transitions? By studying the interplay between policy and technology, we aim to move beyond idealised assumptions about governance and develop a more realistic understanding of the conditions that enable or constrain energy transitions.
Approach
These questions cannot be understood from a single disciplinary lens. ENTAP brings together quantitative and qualitative methods with insights from innovation studies, policy studies, and energy systems modelling. We work across scales from individual technology case studies to global scenario analysis and collaborate with researchers and institutions across disciplines.
Collaborate with us: We welcome visitors and collaborators. If you are interested in working with us on technology projections, policy analysis, or energy futures, please get in touch.
